A Falcon 9 second stage is set to collide with the Moon in the summer of 2026. According to analyses by astronomer Bill Gray, the Falcon 9 second stage, launched on January 15, 2025, is anticipated to impact the Moon on August 5th at 08:44 Italian time. The impact is likely to occur on the visible side of the Moon, possibly in the vicinity of the Einstein crater.
The rocket piece measures approximately 14 meters in length and nearly 4 meters in width. At the moment of impact, it will be traveling at about 2.4 km/s. On Earth, such an object would largely disintegrate in the atmosphere. However, on the Moon, this does not happen. Due to the absence of an atmosphere, the stage will reach the surface virtually intact. Despite this, the impact will be difficult to observe from Earth, even with telescopes, as it will be too faint.
This stage was part of a mission that delivered two landers to the Moon: the American Blue Ghost and the Japanese Resilience. After launch, the two vehicles continued towards the lunar surface, while the stage remained in orbit.
Since then, it has been closely monitored by astronomers who have collected over a thousand observations to reconstruct its trajectory. Analyzing this data revealed that the stage’s orbit would intersect with the Moon’s, leading to the predicted impact in August of this year.
A Predicted Impact With No (Immediate) Risks
Astronomers are quite confident about the origin of this object. Unlike similar past incidents, this stage has been observed since its launch, leaving no doubt about its identity. The trajectory has been precisely calculated and clearly indicates an impact with the lunar surface.
When it strikes the Moon, it will create a small crater. However, there will be no significant consequences. The Moon is an environment devoid of atmosphere and life, and there are no active probes or instruments in the impact zone. Even from a scientific perspective, while it is an interesting event, it is not rare.
This incident, however, highlights that for rockets heading to the Moon, a subsequent impact of their second stage (or, more accurately, final stage) on the lunar surface is likely. With more launches directed towards the Moon, the number of objects left in space after these missions will also increase. Within NASA’s new Artemis program, for example, dozens of launches are planned for the coming years to send landers, rovers, and infrastructure. All these launches will be executed with Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, and New Glenn rockets, and could result in similar impacts.
A Delicate Environment
While the current impact will not pose major risks, in the future, when there are many more infrastructures on the Moon, greater attention will be needed. Our Moon is indeed particularly delicate, and an impact could affect outposts and scientific missions even thousands of kilometers away.
To avoid future impacts, relatively simple solutions exist, such as moving rocket stages into safe orbits around the Sun. This reduces the risk of them hitting the Moon or Earth in an uncontrolled manner.
With growing space traffic, this type of management could become increasingly important in the coming years. This is especially true now that NASA has revised the Artemis program with the intention of building a permanent base on the lunar surface.
